European Leaders Strategize Amid Doubts Over Trump-Putin Talks

European leaders are increasingly skeptical that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, facilitated by U.S. President Donald Trump, will succeed. Nonetheless, their strategy involves engaging with Trump and expressing support for his diplomatic efforts, hoping this will push him to adopt a firmer stance against the Kremlin. The overarching goal is to challenge Vladimir Putin and assess his commitment to peace while advocating for stronger sanctions.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who has engaged extensively with Putin in attempts to prevent the conflict, has been particularly vocal in his doubts. Macron stated before departing for Washington, “Do I think that President Putin wants peace? The answer is no. I think he wants the capitulation of Ukraine.” Macron’s remarks underscore the prevailing sentiment among European leaders that Putin remains focused on undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty.

As preparations for a potential summit between Russia and Ukraine advance, European leaders convened emergency discussions to strategize their response. According to five diplomats who spoke on the condition of anonymity, there is a shared belief that the Kremlin is unlikely to negotiate in good faith. However, they expressed optimism that if Putin is seen as the primary barrier to peace, Washington would respond with increased sanctions.

The diplomats emphasized the importance of U.S. sanctions as a crucial element in the diplomatic landscape. There is a consensus that prior U.S. tariffs on India, linked to its oil purchases from Russia, led to a temporary engagement from Putin during talks in Alaska. European leaders hope to escalate similar sanctions targeting Russia’s vital trade with China.

Support for the American initiative to broker peace is largely driven by the desire to clarify Russia’s intentions. “It will be a clear test of Russian intentions,” noted a second diplomat. Meanwhile, security guarantees being developed for Ukraine are expected to strengthen its negotiation position, providing leverage over Putin.

On March 4, 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and leaders from several other nations joined Macron in Washington to support Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during discussions with Trump. These talks come shortly after Trump’s meeting with Putin, where he claimed progress had been made on various issues.

Fiona Hill, a former advisor during Trump’s first term, commented on the diplomatic landscape, stating, “This is a constant Trump management exercise for everyone.” She added that while expectations were low, the outcome of the Alaska summit provided some material for further discussions.

Amidst the diplomatic maneuvers, European leaders expressed gratitude towards Trump for hosting the talks. They appeared relieved by his assurances regarding the U.S. role in providing security guarantees for Ukraine. Despite this, there is an underlying tension regarding the need for stringent economic measures against Russia if it continues its military aggression.

A fourth EU diplomat remarked, “Everyone is going through the motions. But we don’t know what Putin’s end game is. What will motivate Putin to give any concessions? I don’t know.” This uncertainty highlights the challenges facing the ongoing diplomatic efforts.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has suggested that any negotiations with Ukraine must proceed gradually and be prepared meticulously, which has raised questions about Russia’s commitment to genuine dialogue. A German official pointed out the Kremlin’s ambiguous stance, stating, “Russia agreed to host or participate in a bilateral summit with Zelenskyy… The Russian side now interprets this differently.”

In the meantime, the European Union is accelerating its diplomatic efforts. An extraordinary meeting of ambassadors took place on March 5, 2024, to strategize ahead of a leaders’ call and discuss security guarantees for Ukraine. There are expectations that a concrete peace proposal could be formulated within the week.

Leaders have indicated that American air power may be utilized in Ukraine, while European nations could contribute troops to safeguard Ukrainian security. These developments contradict Russia’s territorial ambitions and reinforce the commitment of Western nations to a united front.

Despite a generally positive atmosphere among Western allies, the discussions in Washington revealed differing positions on key issues, particularly regarding a ceasefire. A fifth diplomat noted, “There was some hope Trump could change his mind back on the ceasefire issue. That didn’t happen, but overall it was still a good step towards peace.”

As the situation evolves, Trump himself has acknowledged the possibility that Putin may not be negotiating in good faith. “We’re going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks… It’s possible that he doesn’t want to make a deal,” Trump stated in a recent interview.

The coming weeks will be pivotal in determining the trajectory of peace talks, with both European leaders and the U.S. administration watching closely to see if Putin will respond constructively to ongoing diplomatic pressures.