Universities Set to Rely on Random Selection for Popular Courses

Universities in Ireland are preparing to implement a “painful” random selection system again this year for courses with high demand. This decision comes as institutions face the challenge of selecting from a pool of top candidates, particularly in fields such as medicine and dentistry. Although a decrease in grade inflation and the addition of more course spaces may alleviate some concerns, the reliance on lottery systems remains a significant factor in the admissions process.

This year marks the beginning of a gradual reduction in post-marking grade adjustments that were introduced during the pandemic. These adjustments had aimed to maintain grades at elevated levels resulting from predicted grades and exam alterations. Despite this, the Leaving Cert results continue to reflect scores well above pre-pandemic standards. Consequently, students who achieved maximum points are not guaranteed acceptance into their first-choice courses.

Last year, random selection was employed in over 20 courses. Notable examples include five courses at Trinity College Dublin, four at University College Dublin (UCD), and three at University College Cork (UCC). In 2024, courses such as economics and finance at UCD and dental science at Trinity required the maximum score of 625 points, leading to a lottery selection. This process resulted in some students missing out on their top choices due to the randomness of the selection.

“Everyone understands the heartbreak for the individual, but there’s no way around it,” stated a representative from a Dublin university, describing the random selection as “painful.” Many universities are bracing for the likelihood of using this selection method in the coming days.

“Everyone hates the lottery system,” the representative added. “If there’s any way at all that we can stop it, we will.” Despite these sentiments, institutions expect to employ random selection in a limited number of courses this year. The representative noted that there are likely to be “a lot of individual sad stories,” referencing students who missed out on preferred courses last year and may face similar outcomes again.

The competition is intensified by the presence of 19,700 applicants who took the Leaving Cert in previous years, many of whom benefited from a higher level of grade inflation. In total, 52 percent of grades were inflated this year, a decrease from 68 percent last year, while the average mark increase was 6.8 percent, down from 7.5 percent in 2023.

The Department of Education has indicated that plans to return to pre-pandemic grading standards will be executed “carefully” over the coming years. A spokesperson for the department noted, “Minister for Education Helen McEntee has asked officials to work with the State Examinations Commission (SEC) to consider the approach for future years.” This includes evaluating the level of adjustments to examinations and determining a timeline for phasing out the post-marking adjustments.

The spokesperson assured that decisions will be made in a timely manner to provide clarity for students as soon as possible. As universities navigate this challenging landscape, students and parents remain hopeful for a more equitable and predictable admissions process in the future.