Central Bank Warns: Government Likely to Miss Housing Target

Central Bank, 300,000 homes, 2030, 32,500 homes, 15% tariffs, Micheál Martin, Ireland, EirGrid, 2026, 2027

UPDATE: The Central Bank has issued a stark warning this morning— the government is unlikely to meet its ambitious goal of delivering over 300,000 new homes by 2030. As housing completions lag significantly behind expectations, this shortfall poses a serious risk to Ireland’s economic growth.

In its latest quarterly bulletin released today, the Central Bank reveals that housing completions are projected to reach only 32,500 this year, with modest increases expected to just 36,000 in 2026 and 40,000 in 2027. This marks a decline from their previous forecasts just three months ago.

Authorities highlight that without a drastic acceleration in construction, the government must deliver over 97,000 homes annually in 2028 and 2029—essentially tripling the current expected output. Martin O’Brien, a researcher with the Central Bank, stated, “It’s certainly got to be a challenge to meet those kinds of targets.”

The urgency of the housing crisis is compounded by infrastructure challenges. O’Brien pointed out that the delivery of essential water and energy resources must match housing demands to avoid stifling economic growth. Ireland’s population growth is projected to increase wastewater output in greater Dublin by over 50% in the next 25 years, while electricity demand may surge by 45% by 2034, according to EirGrid.

“If the challenges in water and energy aren’t resolved, they will constrain economic growth,” O’Brien added, emphasizing the impact on both Irish and international businesses that rely on sufficient housing to attract staff.

Amid these revelations, only 15,000 new homes were delivered in the first half of this year, slightly above earlier expectations. However, building commencements plummeted to 6,325, down from 34,490 during the same period in 2024. This volatility raises significant concerns over future housing completions.

The Central Bank’s predictions come just weeks ahead of the government’s rollout of Budget 2026 and the new Housing for All plan. While the Budget is not expected to introduce major surprises, it is likely to reaffirm commitments to housing schemes such as Help to Buy and First Home Scheme through 2030.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin has indicated a more cautious approach in light of economic uncertainties, particularly due to incoming 15% tariffs from the US. The upcoming budget package totals €9.4 billion, including €1.5 billion in tax cuts and €7.9 billion in spending, representing a 7.3% increase for next year.

As the Central Bank warns of reduced supports and the potential impact of tariffs on exports, the economic outlook remains precarious. The ongoing housing crisis, coupled with infrastructural challenges, jeopardizes not only domestic stability but also Ireland’s attractiveness to international businesses.

In conclusion, the Central Bank’s latest findings underscore the critical need for immediate action to address housing supply and infrastructure issues. As the nation anticipates the government’s forthcoming budget and housing strategy, the urgency for effective solutions has never been clearer.