Conservative Party Faces Existential Crisis at Manchester Conference

The future of the Conservative Party appears increasingly uncertain following its recent conference in Manchester. A poll conducted by YouGov and Sky revealed that nearly half of the party’s members do not support leader Kemi Badenoch as their candidate for the next election. This discontent reflects a wider crisis, with the party’s support languishing at just 16 percent in opinion polls compared to 30 percent for the opposition party Reform UK.

At a Demos think-tank event held on March 10, 2025, political analyst John Curtice emphasized the gravity of the situation facing the Conservatives. As a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, he presented data that suggested the party could risk losing its long-standing status as a mainstream governing force in the UK. “I think it’s that serious,” he stated, highlighting the party’s struggle to maintain its voter coalition established during the leadership of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

The absence of notable anti-Brexit protester Steve Bray from the conference further underscores the challenges facing the party. Bray, known for his vocal criticism of Tory politicians, remarked, “Sorry, but I have more important engagements like washing the car,” indicating a lack of interest in the event’s proceedings.

Badenoch’s leadership is under intense scrutiny, particularly as the party grapples with public dissatisfaction linked to the economy and immigration policies. Recent polling indicates that many voters continue to blame the Conservatives for the state of Britain, especially regarding economic stagnation and immigration issues. Curtice described this trend as “remarkable” for an opposition party 15 months after an election.

At the Manchester Convention Complex, the event was marked by a striking two-part slogan: “Stronger economy, stronger borders.” Although the Conservatives have leaned towards a hardline stance on migration, including Badenoch’s proposal to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights, Curtice warned that they might struggle to outperform Reform UK on this issue.

The conference featured competing visions from key party figures. Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride advocated for a focus on economic stability through significant spending cuts totaling £47 billion (approximately €54 billion). He emphasized the need for fiscal discipline, stating, “Britain must live within our means.” Yet, his speech was delivered to a sparsely populated room, reflecting a lack of enthusiasm among party members.

In contrast, Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick attracted a larger audience with his focus on immigration and security. His remarks, including a strong condemnation of recent protests related to Gaza, resonated with attendees, highlighting a divide in the party’s strategic approach.

Despite attempts to create a lively atmosphere, the conference did not match the energy seen at other political events, such as last month’s Liberal Democrats conference. Nostalgic nods to former leader Margaret Thatcher were present, including mannequins dressed in her iconic outfits, yet these gestures failed to invigorate the event.

Badenoch remains determined to lead the party into the next election and countered claims of imminent failure. Speaking at the backbench 1922 Committee’s joint event with Conservative Home, she stated, “People keep writing the Tories off, and I keep telling them they are wrong.” Her assertion drew applause from the audience, yet uncertainty looms as other potential leaders position themselves for a possible takeover should she falter.

The Conservative Party’s future hangs in the balance, with critical decisions ahead that will shape its direction in a rapidly changing political landscape.