European Parliament Votes on Confidence in von der Leyen’s Commission

The European Parliament is poised to vote on two motions of censure against the European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, on March 15, 2024. This vote comes only three months after the Commission survived a previous motion of censure. The outcome will determine whether the entire Commission must resign, an event that would require the approval of at least 360 out of 719 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs).

At noon in Strasbourg, MEPs will deliberate on both motions sequentially. A successful censure motion necessitates a two-thirds majority of the votes cast, which translates to a significant consensus among parliamentarians.

The motions of censure originate from the far-right Patriots for Europe (PfE) and the leftist The Left groups. The first motion criticizes the European Commission’s environmental policies and recent trade agreements with the United States and Mercosur countries. Proponents argue that these agreements undermine the European farming industry by allowing products that do not comply with EU standards, thereby creating unfair competition and endangering thousands of European farmers.

In contrast, The Left’s motion shares some criticisms with the PfE’s but expands the scope to include the Commission’s responses to the climate crisis and the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. The motion condemns what it perceives as the Commission’s failure to act against the Israeli government’s actions in Gaza, which it describes as systematic violations of international law.

During a joint debate earlier this week, both Jordan Bardella, President of the PfE, and Manon Aubry, co-chair of The Left, articulated their criticisms aimed at garnering support for their respective motions. In response, von der Leyen adopted a more conciliatory tone than in previous sessions. She emphasized the need to focus on delivering results for European citizens, stating, “The point I am making is that we need to focus on what really matters.”

A key aspect of the upcoming votes will be the position of the centrist coalition within the Parliament. The European People’s Party (EPP), with its 188 MEPs, has pledged full support for von der Leyen and will vote against both motions. EPP chair Manfred Weber criticized the confidence votes, calling them “a little bit ridiculous” and a “propaganda tool” for their proponents.

The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), consisting of 136 MEPs, has also made it clear that it will not support either motion. However, internal discussions suggest a possibility that some S&D members may abstain or not attend the vote proposed by The Left.

Similarly, the centrist group Renew Europe, which includes 75 MEPs, intends to oppose both motions, with its chair, Valérie Hayer, labeling the motion’s promoters as “trolls.” Previous confidence votes indicate that while most members align with group positions, there remains uncertainty about how many liberal MEPs might diverge from party lines.

On the right side of the political spectrum, the PfE is expected to support both its own motion and that of The Left, although formal unity has not been declared. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), with 79 MEPs, are allowing national delegations to decide their votes, which could lead to divisions similar to those seen in past votes.

The Europe of Sovereign Nations group (ESN) is anticipated to support the censure motions, with an internal source confirming that many of its 27 MEPs would back the PfE’s initiative.

Leftist factions within the Parliament are also likely to show some split opinions. The Greens/EFA group, comprising 53 MEPs, is expected to oppose both motions, despite some members from Spain and Italy supporting The Left’s initiative. The Left itself, consisting of 46 MEPs, faces a dilemma as it seeks to challenge the Commission without aligning too closely with far-right factions.

While the required threshold to topple the Commission may not be met, the numbers will be closely scrutinized. In the previous confidence vote, 175 MEPs supported the motion of censure while 360 voted against it. Any increase in support for the motions could be seen as a significant symbolic victory for their backers, while a decline in opposition numbers could signal a diminishing approval for von der Leyen’s leadership within the Parliament.