Catherine Connolly Leads Presidential Race in New Poll

Catherine Connolly has emerged as the frontrunner in the upcoming Presidential Election, according to a recent poll conducted by Business Post/Red C. The survey, which involved 1,001 participants between October 2 and 7, 2023, indicates that the Independent candidate commands a significant 36% support, surpassing her main opponent, Heather Humphreys, who has garnered 25% of the vote.

Despite his withdrawal from the race on October 5, former candidate Jim Gavin remains a factor in the election. The poll shows him with 12% support, while a notable 27% of respondents reported being undecided. Gavin’s name will still appear on the ballot, as he withdrew after the deadline for candidates to remove themselves from consideration under the Presidential Elections Act.

When Gavin’s votes are redistributed according to second preference patterns, Connolly’s support increases to 39%, while Humphreys rises to 31%. This redistribution could be crucial as the election progresses, particularly if no candidate achieves the required 50% + 1 threshold on the first count.

Gavin’s name remains on the ballots due to logistical and legal constraints. Some postal ballots have already been printed, and it is not feasible to remove his name entirely. If votes for Gavin are cast, they will be counted, potentially influencing the outcome as his second preferences are redistributed among the remaining candidates.

In a statement issued after the controversy surrounding his failure to repay a tenant over €3,000, Gavin expressed his motivations for running, stating, “When I announced my intention to contest the presidential election, I did so in a spirit of lifelong public service and a love of country. That has always been my sole motivation.”

With the election approaching, Connolly’s strong lead may set the stage for a competitive race, particularly as voters continue to weigh their options. The poll’s margin of error stands at ±3%, indicating a dynamic landscape as the election date draws near.

As the campaign unfolds, the focus will likely shift to how effectively candidates can adapt to the changing sentiments of the electorate, particularly in light of Gavin’s ongoing presence in the race despite his withdrawal. The implications of these polling numbers could have significant consequences for the final outcome of the election.