Connolly Leads Humphreys in Poll Ahead of Presidential Vote

Catherine Connolly, the Independent candidate for the Áras, has emerged as a clear frontrunner in the latest opinion poll conducted by the Irish Times and Ipsos B&A. The poll indicates that Connolly commands the support of 38% of respondents, nearly double that of Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys, who stands at 20%. The findings come as the presidential election in Ireland approaches, with just over a week remaining before voters head to the polls.

The poll, which surveyed 1,200 voters between Sunday and Tuesday, also reveals that Jim Gavin, the former Fianna Fáil candidate who withdrew from the race last week but remains on the ballot, has garnered 5% of the support. Despite Gavin’s exit, the survey shows a notable 18% of participants remain undecided about their voting choice. Additionally, 12% of those polled indicated they will not participate in the election, while 6% plan to spoil their votes.

Voter Sentiment and Candidate Representation

The poll results suggest that second preference votes from Gavin are likely to be evenly split between Connolly and Humphreys. A significant majority, 67%, of voters believe Gavin made the right decision to leave the race. This sentiment extends beyond his party affiliation, as 68% of Fianna Fáil supporters also concur with the decision.

The survey further highlights a disconnect between voters and the candidates, with nearly half, or 49%, expressing that they do not feel represented by any of the individuals running for the presidency. This feeling of disenfranchisement has led to a call for reform, with over half of respondents, 55%, advocating for easier entry into the Áras race. Furthermore, 45% of those surveyed believe that conservative candidate Maria Steen should have been given the opportunity to compete in the election.

As the electoral landscape continues to evolve, these insights offer a glimpse into the sentiments shaping the upcoming vote. The results of the Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll serve as a critical indicator of voter preferences and the challenges candidates face in connecting with the electorate.