Netanyahu Faces Political Challenges Following Gaza Ceasefire

Binyamin Netanyahu’s leadership faces a significant test as political dynamics shift following a recent ceasefire in Gaza. The ceasefire, along with the release of 20 hostages, has narrowed the opposition’s lead in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, raising questions about Netanyahu’s future as Prime Minister.

Polls have indicated a potential electoral defeat for Netanyahu’s coalition of right-wing and religious parties since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. However, recent developments, including a military defeat of Hizbullah in Lebanon and a 12-day conflict with Iran in June, have altered the landscape. The latest surveys show the opposition bloc leading by only a few seats in the 120-seat Knesset. While Netanyahu’s bloc still struggles to secure a majority, the prospect of a hung parliament, where Arab parties might hold the balance of power, is increasingly plausible.

In a scenario where neither bloc achieves the required majority of 61 parliamentarians, Netanyahu could remain in power as the leader of a transitional government. This situation has become more likely in light of a recent survey by the Israel Democracy Institute, marking the two-year anniversary of the October 7 attack. The survey revealed that 66 percent of Jewish Israelis desire an end to the conflict, yet 45 percent believe Netanyahu should resign immediately, while an additional 19 percent advocate for his resignation after the war concludes.

The US-brokered ceasefire is viewed as a pivotal moment for Israel. The conclusion of the hostilities and the hostage release are seen by many Israelis as remarkable achievements. Initial reactions to the ceasefire had a positive impact on Netanyahu’s popularity, though it remains uncertain whether this “Bibi-bump” will endure. Events on Sunday, when two Israeli soldiers were killed in southern Gaza, may dampen this newfound support, although current opinion polls have yet to reflect this change.

In the aftermath of the hostage release, public sentiment revealed a mixed response. During a gathering in Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square, a wave of boos greeted US envoy Steve Witkoff when he mentioned Netanyahu’s name, indicating some discontent among the crowd. Despite this, a poll conducted immediately following the ceasefire found that 33 percent of respondents believed Netanyahu’s standing had improved. A subsequent poll by Maariv on October 10 showed a slight uptick in support for the Prime Minister, yet 48 percent still asserted that now is the right time for elections.

Political analysts like Gayil Talshir from Jerusalem’s Hebrew University suggest that the lack of a surge in Netanyahu’s popularity stems from the opposition to the ceasefire coming primarily from his right-wing base. Talshir noted that “71 percent of the Israeli public supports the Trump plan,” indicating that support for the ceasefire is not necessarily an endorsement of Netanyahu. Many citizens want to see the return of hostages, the end of the war in Gaza, and a move toward stability—objectives that have not been aligned with Netanyahu’s government’s actions in recent years.

Israel is entering an election year, with elections mandated to occur by October 27, 2026. As Netanyahu contemplates the timing of the upcoming elections, he is likely to avoid scheduling them close to the anniversary of the October 7 attack. Additionally, he may seek to extend the Abraham Accords by normalizing relations with countries such as Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, or even Syria, in hopes of bolstering his position before facing voters.

As the political landscape evolves, Netanyahu’s ability to navigate these challenges will play a crucial role in determining his future and the direction of Israeli politics. The coming weeks will be critical in assessing whether the recent ceasefire will translate into lasting support or further complications for the Prime Minister.