Ireland’s Presidential Vote Counting Begins: Results Expected Soon

UPDATE: Ireland has officially cast its votes for the next president, with counting now underway. The ballot boxes across 43 constituencies opened at 9 AM today, as the nation eagerly awaits results that could shape its leadership for years to come.

The race, initially featuring three candidates, has narrowed to a showdown between Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys and Independent TD Catherine Connolly following the withdrawal of Fianna Fáil candidate Jim Gavin. As the counting commences, the public sentiment is palpable, with bookmakers already speculating on Connolly’s potential victory.

This election is critical, not only because it marks the end of Michael D Higgins‘s 14-year tenure in Áras an Uachtaráin, but also due to concerns over voter turnout. Political analysts predict turnout could dip below 40%, significantly lower than previous elections. Theresa Reidy, a political scientist at University College Cork, noted that negative campaigning and a limited candidate pool could further discourage voters.

Currently, the counting process involves tallying first preference votes using the PR-STV system. The first results from counting centers will be relayed to the Presidential Returns Officer (PRO) at Dublin Castle. The first count results are anticipated to arrive later today, potentially by 7 PM, if the trends hold true. A candidate must secure over 50% of the votes to be declared the winner.

“Lower turnout and fewer candidates could accelerate the timeline for announcing results,” said Reidy.

However, a spike in spoiled votes could complicate matters. Polls indicate that up to 6% of voters plan to spoil their ballots, a significant increase from previous elections where about 1% of votes were spoiled. These ballots will need to be verified, which could extend the counting process.

In 2011, Higgins was elected after a more extended counting period that lasted until the afternoon of the second day. Conversely, in 2018, he won on the first count by 7:45 PM. With only two viable candidates this time, many expect a winner could emerge much sooner.

If a second count becomes necessary, results may not be finalized until late Saturday or early Sunday. Meanwhile, Higgins’s term will officially end at midnight on November 10, 2023, with the new president’s inauguration set for the following afternoon at St. Patrick’s Hall in Dublin Castle.

As the counting progresses, unofficial tallies may provide early insights into the outcome. Observers are closely monitoring the count, and the atmosphere is charged with anticipation as Ireland prepares for its next chapter in leadership.

This is a developing story, and updates will follow as results come in. Stay tuned for the latest on Ireland’s presidential election.