Tensions Rise Ahead of Polish Presidential Election on May 18, 2025

The first round of the Polish Presidential Election is set for May 18, 2025, coinciding with Romania’s presidential election. With no candidate anticipated to secure a majority in the initial round, the contest is shaping up to be highly competitive. Current polling indicates that the candidate from the main coalition, Civic Alliance (PO), Rafal Trzaskowski, is leading with approximately 32% of voter support, a margin of about 10% over his nearest rival, Karol Nawrocki of the Law and Justice Party (PiS).

Nawrocki, who holds views that may resonate with the party’s nationalist base, has expressed opposition to Ukraine’s membership in both the EU and NATO. He argues that Ukraine must first address historical grievances, particularly the Volyn massacres of Poles by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II. His stance has drawn criticism, particularly regarding ongoing tensions between Poland and Ukraine, and he has previously voiced discontent with attempts to resolve these issues between the two countries.

Recent visits to Washington, D.C., have positioned Nawrocki as a favored candidate among certain American political circles, potentially influencing campaign dynamics. The election’s outcome is critical; should Trzaskowski prevail, he may implement significant reforms to counteract media and judicial policies enacted under the previous PiS government. Under that administration, judges who ruled against the government faced forced resignations, and a controversial disciplinary body was established, capable of imposing lengthy prison sentences on dissenting judges.

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled that aspects of the previous government’s retirement law, which imposed different ages for men and women, violated EU treaties, thus mandating the reinstatement of certain judges. The current government’s efforts to dismantle these measures highlight the election’s importance in shaping Poland’s judicial landscape.

As the election approaches, polling data reveals a narrowing gap between the two frontrunners. While Trzaskowski remains the favorite for a potential second round, some polls suggest a tight race, with predictions indicating he may only lead Nawrocki by a slim margin in hypothetical matchups. Notably, the Atlas Intel poll indicated that Nawrocki could potentially surpass Trzaskowski by 2% in the first round.

The political atmosphere is charged, with social issues polarizing the electorate. As in past elections, the expat vote may play a pivotal role; Polish émigrés have historically leaned liberal in response to the rightward shift of domestic policies. In contrast, Romanian expats have shown support for far-right candidates despite the EU’s provisions for living and working abroad.

Amid these dynamics, concerns have arisen regarding potential foreign interference in the election process, particularly from Russia, following similar allegations in Romania’s electoral context. The Polish government has raised alarms about foreign-funded advertisements during the campaign, leading to fears of manipulation.

As the date approaches, observers expect a highly contested election, with the potential for a significant shift in Poland’s political landscape depending on the outcome. The first round results will undoubtedly set the stage for a decisive second round, where every vote will carry considerable weight in determining the future direction of Polish governance.