Irish Exports Decline as Stockpiling by US Importers Ends

The value of Irish exports saw a significant decline in June 2024, as the period of stockpiling by US importers in anticipation of tariffs concluded. According to the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), exports fell by €6.1 billion, a decrease of 26 percent, bringing the total to €17.2 billion. Despite this drop, the overall value of exports remained nearly 5 percent higher than the same month last year, when they stood at €16.7 billion.

The impact of former President Donald Trump’s tariff policies is particularly evident in the export figures to the United States. In June, exports to the US decreased by €1.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 23.4 percent, down to €4.4 billion. Comparatively, the value of exports in May 2024 was markedly higher at €10.8 billion, indicating a near 60 percent decline month-on-month.

Stockpiling and Its Aftermath

The sharp reduction in exports aligns with a tapering off of stockpiling that occurred following the announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs by Trump on April 2, 2024. Although these tariffs were postponed for 90 days shortly after their announcement, the anticipation of increased costs led many US importers to stockpile goods in advance. In June, nearly three-quarters of Irish exports to the US were categorized as chemicals and related products, with a total value of €3.2 billion shipped.

According to Carol Lynch, head of customs and international trade services at BDO, the decline in exports to the US was expected. Lynch noted that the past months had seen substantial front-loading and stockpiling, and that trade flows are now normalizing. She highlighted the importance of the ongoing US Section 232 investigation, which is expected to determine the tariff rate on EU pharmaceuticals. This investigation could result in a new standard tariff ceiling of 15 percent or potentially a higher rate, although the EU maintains that the 15 percent cap should apply.

Trends in Trade Relationships

While exports to the US have decreased, it is noteworthy that Irish exports to Britain have increased. In June, exports to Britain rose by €141.6 million, nearly 13 percent year-on-year, totaling €1.24 billion. The three largest trading partners for Irish exports remain the US, the Netherlands, and Belgium, with these countries accounting for almost half of all shipped goods.

In terms of imports, Ireland also experienced growth, with the total reaching €12.3 billion in June, compared to €11.6 billion in the same month last year. The second quarter of 2024 saw total imports valued at €33.9 billion, marking an increase of just over €500 million from the previous year. Germany, the US, and France were the top sources of imports, making up approximately 38 percent of all inward trade for June. Conversely, imports from Britain declined by €171 million compared to June 2023, with the UK now representing just over 10 percent of Ireland’s import trade.

As the EU and US reached a broad trade agreement at the end of May 2024, which included a 15 percent tariff rate on most exports from Europe, further details about its implementation are still awaited. The White House has yet to clarify specific tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, although the EU insists that the 15 percent rate will also apply to this sector.

Lynch emphasized that Irish exporters must now focus on verifying whether their goods qualify for lower tariff rates based on shipment dates. They should also confirm tariff classifications and check for possible exclusions while maintaining oversight of US Customs entry status, which can remain open for up to a year.