Connolly Leads Polls by 11 Points Over Humphreys Ahead of Election

Independent candidate Catherine Connolly holds a significant lead over her rival, Heather Humphreys of Fine Gael, according to a recent opinion poll. Released on October 12, 2025, the poll indicates that Connolly commands 36 percent of voter support, while Humphreys trails with 25 percent. This 11-point gap underscores the challenges facing Humphreys as the election approaches.

Political analyst Daniel McConnell, editor of the Business Post, emphasized that Humphreys will need to attract voters from Fianna Fáil if she hopes to close the gap. Currently, Jim Gavin of Fianna Fáil is polling at 12 percent, despite recently withdrawing from the race due to financial obligations involving a former tenant.

As the election nears, the dynamics of voter support are shifting. Connolly’s independent candidacy appears to resonate well with the electorate, potentially positioning her as a strong contender. In contrast, the Fine Gael campaign faces urgent pressure to recalibrate its strategy, especially in appealing to disenchanted Fianna Fáil supporters.

McConnell noted, “Fine Gael must act swiftly if they want to overcome Connolly’s lead.” This statement reflects a growing sentiment among political observers that the upcoming weeks will be crucial for Humphreys and her party. The results of this poll could foreshadow the election’s outcome, making it imperative for candidates to engage with their constituents effectively.

As the political landscape evolves, voters will be watching closely. The implications of these polling numbers extend beyond individual candidates, potentially influencing party strategies and alliances moving forward.

Election analysts will continue to monitor the situation as campaign efforts intensify in the coming days. The ability of candidates to connect with voters will be key in shaping the final results. As Connolly enjoys her lead, the pressure mounts on Humphreys to present a compelling case for her candidacy.