EU Leaders Cautiously Optimistic After Call with Trump on Ukraine

European leaders expressed a mix of relief and caution following a recent call with U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The discussion aimed to alleviate fears surrounding an impending summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, set for March 17, 2024, in Alaska. While assurances were made that Trump would not compromise Ukraine’s sovereignty, the unpredictable nature of both leaders leaves room for concern.

During the call, European officials conveyed a sense of optimism about Trump’s understanding of the necessity for a ceasefire before any discussions on territorial adjustments. There was a shared belief that Ukraine should be included in negotiations. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz remarked that Trump “largely shares” European positions, which was echoed by French President Emmanuel Macron and European Council President António Costa.

Latvia’s Prime Minister Evika Siliņa also expressed optimism, stating, “We are all on the same page” regarding a peace deal and praised Trump as an “excellent and unique negotiator.” Her comments followed a call with Vice President JD Vance, where discussions centered on potential solutions to the conflict.

Despite this positive atmosphere, there are lingering doubts about Trump’s intentions and the outcome of his meeting with Putin. Observers noted that while Trump spoke confidently about his plans, the specifics remained vague. A source familiar with the discussions stated, “Overall, there was a positive atmosphere, but Trump, as always, talked a lot about what he would do, but no one could say what exactly he was going to do.”

Trump’s recent rhetoric has included strong warnings for Putin, suggesting “severe consequences” should there be a lack of seriousness in negotiations. This marks a shift from earlier attitudes where Trump had praised Putin’s leadership style. However, European leaders remain apprehensive about the potential for a deal that could undermine Ukraine’s demands, especially given Trump’s previous controversial interactions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Concerns have been raised regarding the possibility of Trump and Putin discussing lucrative contracts for energy and rare earth minerals, diverting attention from critical issues like reparations and the fate of abducted children. Analysts warn that a deal falling short of European expectations could provide Trump with a convenient scapegoat. “He can say the real enemies of peace are elsewhere: It’s the Ukrainians and the Europeans who stand in the way,” noted Jan Techau, head of Germany for Eurasia Group.

The evolving dynamics also appear to influence Vance’s stance. Known for his previous criticisms of Ukraine, he has reportedly adopted a more solution-oriented approach, acknowledging that Putin remains a significant adversary. Nonetheless, Vance’s comments on Fox News indicated a preference for European nations to assume greater responsibility for funding military assistance, rather than the U.S. continuing its support.

As the summit approaches, both European leaders and analysts remain cautious, fearing that Putin may not genuinely seek a resolution. The overarching aim for Putin remains the destabilization of a democratic Ukraine. One EU official remarked that “no huge expectations” should be held for the forthcoming discussions, suggesting that any gestures made by Putin could be manipulative rather than representative of a true commitment to peace.

In conclusion, while there is a semblance of optimism following the call with Trump, the unpredictability of both leaders creates a complex backdrop for the upcoming summit. The stakes are high for Ukraine and its allies, who must navigate potential pitfalls while advocating for a resolution that safeguards their interests amidst a challenging geopolitical landscape.