Macron Faces Political Crossroads After Bayrou’s Government Falls

France’s political landscape has shifted dramatically following the collapse of Prime Minister François Bayrou‘s government. On March 25, 2024, Bayrou lost a crucial confidence vote in the National Assembly, with lawmakers voting 364–194 against him. This development forces President Emmanuel Macron to consider either appointing a fifth prime minister in less than two years or calling for snap elections, adding to the ongoing political turmoil.

Bayrou, who has been in office for less than a year, had pinned his hopes on an unprecedented confidence vote aimed at implementing significant spending cuts to manage France’s escalating debt. Instead, his plan was met with fierce opposition from both leftist and far-right factions, which seized the opportunity to challenge his leadership. Following the vote, Macron’s office confirmed that the president would accept Bayrou’s resignation on March 26 and appoint a successor “in the coming days.” Until then, Bayrou will serve in a caretaker capacity, managing only routine government matters.

Over the past two years, France has been governed by caretaker administrations twice. The first instance occurred between July and September 2024, following the resignation of Gabriel Attal‘s government, and again in December 2024 after Michel Barnier‘s government fell. Now, Macron faces a pivotal decision: appoint a new prime minister who can navigate the challenges of a divided parliament or dissolve the National Assembly and call for early elections.

If Macron opts for new elections, the constitution mandates they be held within 20 to 40 days following dissolution. Traditionally, the president would appoint a prime minister from the party with the most seats. While he is not constitutionally bound to do so, appointing a leader from the dominant party is customary. If a party were to secure an outright majority, the president would effectively need to name its leader as prime minister, a scenario known as “cohabitation” in French politics. This situation unfolded in 1993 when Socialist President François Mitterrand was compelled to appoint conservative PM Édouard Balladur after the right’s significant victory in the legislative elections.

Speculation regarding Bayrou’s successor is already rife. The next prime minister will face the daunting task of steering a budget through a fragmented parliament where no single party holds a majority. Macron has committed to remaining in office until the end of his mandate in 2027. However, with multiple governments having toppled in such a short period, there are growing concerns that France might become ensnared in deeper political gridlock, which could hinder efforts to address its pressing economic challenges.

According to recent figures, France’s public debt stands at over €3.3 trillion, constituting 114% of GDP, which is the third highest in the eurozone, trailing only Greece and Italy. In 2023, the deficit reached 5.8% of GDP, nearly double the European Union’s 3% limit, with projections indicating a slight decline to 5.4% this year. Bayrou’s proposed plan aimed to reduce spending by €44 billion by 2026, partially by eliminating two public holidays. However, this initiative was criticized by opponents as being socially unjust.

The coming days will be critical as Macron navigates this political crisis, with implications not only for his presidency but also for the future stability of France’s economy.