NATO Faces Increased Drone Threat as Russia-Belarus Exercises Begin

As tensions escalate in Eastern Europe, Russia and Belarus are set to begin their joint military exercises known as Zapad-2025 on September 12. In anticipation, Poland has announced plans to close its border with Belarus due to security concerns, describing the exercises as “very aggressive.” This decision follows reports of Russian drones entering Polish airspace earlier this week.

On September 6, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that at least two Russian drones crossed into Poland, having utilized Belarusian airspace. “In total, at least several dozen Russian drones were moving along the border of Ukraine and Belarus,” he stated. Ukraine’s air defense successfully intercepted over 380 Russian drones of various models on the same day, including more than 250 Shahed drones.

Details on the Drone Incursions

In response to the drone incursions, the Russian Defence Ministry asserted that no Polish targets were intended for attack. “The maximum range of UAVs used in the strike on Ukraine does not exceed 700 km,” they stated. Additionally, Belarusian officials claimed the drones entered Polish airspace accidentally, stating that their navigation systems had been disrupted. Deputy Defence Minister Pavel Muravyeika indicated that some drones were shot down over Belarus.

As these developments unfolded, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed the closure of the border, including railway crossings, beginning at midnight on September 11. Tusk emphasized the need for national security due to the proximity of the military drills.

Understanding Zapad-2025

The Zapad exercises, which translates to “west” in Russian, are joint military drills conducted by Russia and Belarus approximately every four years. Inaugurated in 2009, these exercises aim to enhance coordination and training between the Belarusian military and the Russian 20th Guards Combined Arms Army. Historically, these drills have included between 12,000 and 13,000 troops, though NATO has raised concerns about the accuracy of these figures and the actual objectives behind the exercises.

Past iterations of Zapad have featured scenarios that closely mirror geopolitical tensions in the region. For instance, during the Zapad-2017 drills, scenarios involving fictional states resembling the Baltic nations were conducted, indicating potential future military strategies. Observers noted that in September 2021, just months prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia claimed 12,800 servicemen participated in the exercises, while actual troop levels in the region were closer to 200,000.

In light of these exercises, Poland’s security measures have intensified, with President Karol Nawrocki expressing distrust towards Russian intentions, saying, “We do not trust Vladimir Putin’s good intentions.”

Military Developments in Belarus

Concerns over the military posturing in the region have been heightened by reports of a new military installation under construction in Belarus. Analysts suggest this site could play a significant role in Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine. According to Radio Svoboda, the construction, which began in June 2024 south of Minsk near Pavlovka, spans over two square kilometers and may be designed to house Russia’s new Oreshnik ballistic missile system.

Furthermore, investigative reports have identified another emerging facility near Gomel, less than 40 km from the Ukrainian border. This site, reportedly initiated in late 2023, has seen substantial clearing and construction efforts, indicative of a potential military base capable of accommodating around 3,000 personnel.

As the Zapad-2025 exercises commence, the situation in Eastern Europe remains fluid, with multiple nations on alert for any developments that could escalate tensions further.