Catherine Connolly Takes Lead in Presidential Race Amid Poll Surge

UPDATE: A new Business Post/Red C poll reveals that Independent candidate Catherine Connolly has surged to a commanding lead in the Presidential Election, capturing 36% of voter support. This significant development comes as the election draws near, with Heather Humphreys trailing at 25%.

The poll, conducted from October 2 to 7, 2023, surveyed 1,001 participants and has a margin of error of +/-3%. Notably, Jim Gavin, who withdrew from the race on October 5 amid controversy, still holds 12% of voter support, indicating a complex dynamic as he remains on the ballot.

As voters head to the polls, a striking 27% remain undecided. The implications of Gavin’s candidacy are significant; if his first preference votes are redistributed, Connolly’s support could rise to 39%, while Humphreys could gain to 31%.

The controversy surrounding Gavin—stemming from a failure to repay over €3,000 to a tenant 16 years ago—has not only affected his campaign but also the voting landscape. Despite his withdrawal, Gavin’s name will appear on ballots due to legal stipulations in the Presidential Elections Act, which restricts candidate withdrawal after a certain point.

In a statement last Sunday, Gavin expressed his regret over the situation, saying, “When I announced my intention to contest the presidential election, I did so in a spirit of lifelong public service and a love of country. That has always been my sole motivation.”

As the election approaches, the outcome could hinge on the transfer of votes from Gavin to the remaining candidates. If no candidate surpasses the necessary 50% + 1 threshold on the first count, these transfer votes will become crucial in determining the winner.

With the election heating up, voters are urged to stay informed as developments unfold. The results of this poll signal a pivotal moment for Connolly, whose campaign momentum may influence undecided voters in the coming days.

Stay tuned for live updates on this evolving story as we approach the election date.