Urgent Update: Ireland’s Offshore Wind Potential Slashed by 70%

UPDATE: New reports reveal that Ireland’s ambitions for offshore wind energy have been severely curtailed, with estimates showing potential capacity slashed to between 3 GW and 18 GW—a staggering reduction from earlier projections of 48 GW. Confidential analysis shared with Energy Minister Darragh O’Brien outlines numerous barriers, including unsuitable water depths, protected habitats, and existing infrastructure hazards.

This urgent development comes as the Irish government grapples with escalating climate targets, facing potential fines of up to €20 billion if it fails to meet its emissions reduction commitments by 2030. Ireland currently ranks second highest in the European Union for greenhouse gas emissions per capita, underscoring the critical need for renewable energy solutions.

The analysis, provided to Minister O’Brien in May, exposes significant limitations in the country’s marine environment. Areas deemed unsuitable for offshore wind development include regions with deep waters, shipwrecks, and undersea cables. These findings are alarming given the government’s goal of achieving 20 GW of installed offshore wind capacity by 2040.

Earlier today, Minister O’Brien was advised against publishing the detailed maps as the marine spatial planning process continues. The report highlights that while fixed offshore wind technology is more economically viable in the near term, floating wind options could offer greater flexibility in deeper waters, particularly in the Celtic Sea.

The implications of this report are far-reaching. With 80% of Ireland’s energy expected to come from renewable sources by 2030, the country is running out of time to identify viable sites for new offshore wind projects. Jennifer Whitmore, the Environment spokeswoman for the Social Democrats, expressed her disbelief that such critical mapping was only completed this year, stating, “It’s crazy they’re only now identifying sites that aren’t suitable.”

The urgency is palpable as Ireland has only one operational offshore wind farm, located off Arklow in Co. Wicklow, which is set to be decommissioned. Earlier this year, plans for 30 wind turbines off the coast of Co. Galway were abandoned after receiving 177 objections, further complicating the government’s renewable energy strategy.

Officials stress that maximizing offshore wind energy is a top priority, with Minister O’Brien recently welcoming the provisional results of the 900 MW Tonn Nua site auction off Waterford, which yielded a competitive renewable energy price of €98.719 per megawatt hour (MWh). However, the growing gap between ambitious targets and current capabilities raises urgent questions about the future of Ireland’s energy landscape.

Looking ahead, stakeholders must closely monitor the upcoming developments in marine spatial planning and project approvals. With the national Designated Maritime Area Plan (DMAP) expected to be adopted by the end of 2027, the next few years will be critical in shaping Ireland’s renewable energy future.

As the clock ticks down to 2030, the government faces immense pressure to not only meet emissions targets but to also ensure that adequate infrastructure is in place to support Ireland’s energy needs. The fate of offshore wind development could significantly impact Ireland’s economic growth and its commitment to combating climate change.

Stay tuned for further updates as this story develops.