India Faces Growing Influence of China in South Asia

In a notable shift in diplomatic dynamics, India is expressing concern over China’s increasing influence in South Asia. This shift is particularly evident in Bangladesh, where political leaders are embracing China’s overtures. The trend has significant implications for regional power balances, especially as China seeks to strengthen ties with nations surrounding India.

Syed Abdullah Muhammad Taher, a senior figure in Bangladesh’s Jamaat-e-Islami party, recently received a copy of The Governance of China during a visit to Beijing. The visit, which included meetings with Communist Party officials, underscores China’s strategic outreach to political elites in Bangladesh. “It was an excellent trip; they treated us as government dignitaries,” Taher noted, highlighting the significance of this engagement.

China’s diplomatic strategy appears to be multifaceted, involving high-level interactions with Bangladeshi politicians. Since the interim government of Muhammad Yunus assumed office, Chinese officials have conducted at least seven high-profile meetings with Bangladeshi leaders. This marks a sharp increase compared to the eight meetings during the five-year term of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who had closer ties with India.

The outreach is not limited to Bangladesh. Chinese diplomats have engaged in 22 high-profile meetings this year with officials from Pakistan, a relationship that has deep historical roots. Additionally, interactions with Nepal and Sri Lanka have also increased, with at least six and five meetings, respectively, taking place in 2023.

The underlying motivation for this diplomatic push stems from a broader strategic competition between China and India. As both nations aspire to be global leaders, China’s maneuvers in South Asia serve to distract India while simultaneously securing its access to the Indian Ocean. “China sees what India considers to be its neighbourhood to be perfectly fair game for Chinese activities and influence,” remarked Daniel Markey, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center.

India’s fears of “encirclement” by China have intensified in recent months. The country’s policy of strengthening ties with the United States to counterbalance China’s growing power faces challenges, particularly after U.S. tariffs on Indian goods have increased. Last month, President Donald Trump announced a new $100,000 fee on H-1B visas, affecting many Indian tech workers. This context presents an opportunity for China, as noted by Amit Ranjan, a research fellow at the National University of Singapore. “India is not in a strong position at present, so the Chinese may feel that it’s a good time to exploit that,” he explained.

India’s relationships with its smaller neighbours are also under scrutiny. Currently, India maintains strong ties with only three countries in the region: Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Bhutan. Conversely, China has made inroads into both Sri Lanka and the Maldives while also asserting influence in Bhutan. The implications of these shifting alliances became evident during a recent conflict between India and Pakistan, where Chinese-supplied military equipment reportedly enabled Pakistan to gain an upper hand.

As India grapples with its regional isolation, the potential for increased Chinese influence raises alarms. “There is definitely a fear here that there is an alignment of adversarial powers around India,” stated Sushant Singh, a lecturer in South Asian studies at Yale University. In response to these developments, Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s foreign ministry, emphasized that New Delhi is closely monitoring the situation and stands ready to take action if necessary.

China’s intentions in South Asia have been framed as a pursuit of “a community with a shared future,” according to its foreign ministry. The ministry asserts that its relationships with South Asian nations are not aimed at undermining any third parties. However, the recent charm offensive in Bangladesh has gained momentum following the political upheaval that led to the ousting of Hasina. Yunus’s initial state visit was to China, further signaling a shift in allegiance.

Despite seeking good relations with India, Yunus has faced challenges in establishing meaningful dialogue with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Requests for bilateral talks have reportedly gone unanswered, leading to speculation about the trajectory of India-Bangladesh relations.

China’s diplomatic overtures extend beyond Bangladesh, as its efforts to mediate a reconciliation between Bangladesh and Pakistan are noteworthy. Both nations have recently reopened direct trade links after decades and are exploring defense cooperation, which has historically been a contentious issue due to their shared past.

The growing closeness between China and Pakistan is particularly concerning for India. Recent military sales, including Chinese Z-10ME attack helicopters, enhance Pakistan’s capability and serve as a counterbalance to India’s military strength in the region.

As China deepens its relationships across South Asia, the implications for India are significant. The strategic importance of the Indian Ocean, which serves as a vital conduit for global maritime oil shipments, cannot be overlooked. “The shifting alliances signal an important realignment in the region,” a diplomatic analyst noted.

In the face of these developments, India continues to navigate its complex position in South Asia. While it seeks to maintain its regional influence, the increasing presence of China poses a formidable challenge that requires careful consideration and proactive engagement. The evolving geopolitical landscape is likely to shape the future of South Asian diplomacy, with far-reaching consequences for all involved.