Japan’s Takaichi Faces Diplomatic Crisis with China Over Taiwan

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is navigating a significant diplomatic crisis with China, just weeks into her administration. The contention centers on Taiwan, a self-governing island that China regards as a breakaway province. On November 7, 2023, Takaichi responded to parliamentary inquiries, stating that a military attack on Taiwan could pose a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, potentially prompting a military response from Japan.

China’s reaction has been severe. The consul general in Osaka, Japan’s second-largest city, issued a now-deleted online threat to “cut off” Takaichi’s “dirty neck.” In the wake of rising tensions, Japanese tour operators have reported an alarming 80 percent decline in tourist bookings from China. The Japanese government has advised its citizens to exercise caution when traveling to China, and numerous cultural events have been suspended or canceled.

The situation escalated further with armed Chinese coast guard vessels dispatched to a disputed island chain, and a Chinese military drone sighted over Yonaguni, the closest point in Japan to Taiwan. On Sunday, Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, demanded that Takaichi retract her statements, asserting that threats of military intervention regarding Taiwan have crossed a “red line.” However, for Takaichi, backing down could have severe political repercussions. Her supporters view her stance as a necessary response to what they interpret as Chinese aggression.

Takaichi’s comments reference a legal principle established in 2015, which allows Japan’s Self-Defence Forces (SDF) to engage if a foreign nation with close ties to Japan is attacked. This principle raises questions about the implications of a potential US military intervention in Taiwan, especially if US forces were attempting to counter a Chinese blockade. The debate continues over whether such a scenario genuinely threatens Japan’s survival.

Former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba criticized Takaichi, suggesting her remarks verge on suggesting that a crisis in Taiwan equates to a crisis for Japan. For years, China has employed a range of tactics to exert pressure on Taiwan, aiming to bring it under its control without resorting to military confrontation. In contrast, Japan has historically adhered to a policy of “strategic ambiguity,” advocating for resolution through dialogue.

As China’s military and economic influence has grown, the Japanese political right has become increasingly vocal. In 2021, then Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso explicitly stated that Japan would need to “defend Taiwan” alongside US forces in the event of a Chinese invasion. Such declarations challenge the narrative China has constructed around its historical grievances, particularly as Taiwan holds significant symbolic importance for the Communist Party.

China’s foreign ministry condemned Takaichi’s remarks as “a gross interference in China’s internal affairs.” However, the stakes extend beyond mere diplomatic rhetoric. Analysts like Zhu Tingchang describe Taiwan as a “lock around the neck of a great dragon,” part of a network of US allies, including Japan, that restricts China’s access to the Pacific.

The timing of Takaichi’s statements is particularly alarming for some observers. There are indications that the US government may be reassessing its stance toward China, which could embolden Beijing to test the resolve of Western nations regarding Taiwan. Giulio Pugliese, an expert in Japan-China relations at the European University Institute, noted that the current US administration has not provided public support for Japan’s position.

Despite the mounting pressure, Takaichi has maintained her political support, but the long-term implications for her leadership remain uncertain. Following the onset of tensions, billions have been wiped off the value of stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. According to the Nomura Research Institute, a think tank, the Chinese boycott could lead to an estimated loss of approximately ¥2.2 trillion (around €12.35 billion) annually for Japan. Beijing’s control over critical minerals essential to Japan’s automotive industry adds another layer of complexity to the situation.

Unlike Chinese President Xi Jinping, Takaichi is accountable to voters, who may become increasingly impatient as economic impacts unfold. The coming weeks and months will be crucial for Takaichi as she attempts to balance national security concerns against the backdrop of a burgeoning diplomatic crisis with China.