Sudan Offers Russia Naval Base in Exchange for Military Support

Sudan’s military government has proposed a significant agreement with Russia, offering to establish a naval base in Port Sudan. In exchange, Sudan seeks discounted military equipment, including advanced anti-aircraft systems, to bolster its ongoing conflict against the rebel group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This development could serve as a pivotal moment for Western powers to reassess their strategies in addressing Sudan’s brutal civil war, which has resulted in the deaths of an estimated 150,000 people and displaced over 12 million since its outbreak in April 2023.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) is looking to formalize a 25-year arrangement with Russia. The proposed base would accommodate up to 300 Russian troops and four warships, potentially including nuclear-powered vessels. This base would provide Moscow with strategic access to the Red Sea, a vital trade route responsible for approximately 12 percent of global commerce. The location is about 1,000 kilometers northwest of Djibouti, where both the United States and China maintain military bases.

In addition to military support, the agreement would grant Russia access to Sudan’s rich mineral resources, particularly its gold reserves, making it the third-largest gold producer in Africa. The SAF’s offer reflects a shifting landscape in the conflict, which has seen both the SAF and RSF receiving support from foreign powers with vested interests in Sudan’s resources.

The conflict began when power-sharing arrangements between the SAF and RSF deteriorated, leading to escalating violence. The RSF has gained momentum in recent months, notably capturing the city of El Fasher in West Darfur, where a massacre was so severe that it was visible from space. Both factions utilize local militias to further their objectives, complicating the conflict’s dynamics.

External influences complicate the situation further. The United Arab Emirates has actively supplied arms to the RSF, while Egypt and Saudi Arabia have aligned with the SAF. These nations are motivated by Sudan’s valuable resources and strategic positioning, and their involvement has heightened the stakes for peace efforts.

In September 2023, a diplomatic initiative known as the Quad was proposed by the United States, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. This plan aimed for a humanitarian truce followed by a permanent ceasefire and a transition to a civilian-led government, excluding both the SAF and RSF. The RSF expressed willingness to accept the proposal in light of international condemnation following the massacre in El Fasher. Yet, ongoing clashes continue, with the RSF claiming recent territorial gains in Babnusa.

The SAF’s leadership, particularly General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, dismissed the Quad’s proposal, labeling it as “the worst document yet” due to its perceived marginalization of the military and the continued recognition of the RSF. The Quad’s plan also calls for an end to external military support for the warring factions, yet some member states remain significant arms suppliers to both sides. Without a cessation of weapon supplies, the prospect of a lasting truce appears dim.

Former President Donald Trump recently indicated that resolving the conflict in Sudan would be a priority for his administration. However, his potential entanglements in the Gulf may complicate efforts to exert pressure on external supporters of the SAF and RSF, particularly the Saudis and Emiratis.

By reviving the idea of a Russian naval base, the SAF may be attempting to incentivize the United States to engage more vigorously in efforts to resolve the ongoing conflict. The situation remains fluid, and the implications of this military partnership could reshape the geopolitical landscape in the region, as well as the humanitarian crisis unfolding within Sudan.