Tories Face Existential Crisis as Leadership Questions Arise

The future of the Conservative Party in the UK is in jeopardy, with recent polling indicating that nearly half of the party’s members do not support Kemi Badenoch as their leader moving into the next election. This assessment comes as the party struggles to maintain relevance, with a YouGov and Sky poll showing support for the Conservatives languishing at just 16 percent, while Reform UK commands over 30 percent.

The absence of prominent anti-Brexit protester Steve Bray at the Tory conference in Manchester this week highlights the party’s difficulties. Bray dismissed the event, stating he had “more important engagements,” including mundane tasks like washing the car. His indifference underscores the growing disconnect between the Conservatives and the public.

At a gathering hosted by the Demos think-tank, John Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, articulated the party’s dire situation. He warned attendees that the Conservative Party could lose its status as a viable governing force in the UK. “I think it’s that serious,” Curtice remarked, as he presented data illustrating how Nigel Farage‘s Reform Party has undermined the voter coalition previously established by former leader Boris Johnson.

Curtice’s analysis revealed a troubling trend: many voters hold the Conservative Party responsible for the current state of the UK, particularly its sluggish economy and ongoing migration challenges. He noted that it is remarkable for an opposition party to be blamed for these issues only 15 months after an election defeat.

As delegates gathered at the Manchester Convention Complex, they were greeted by a prominent sign reading “Stronger economy, stronger borders.” Curtice argued that the party’s current focus on migration policy, such as Badenoch’s proposal to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), might be misguided. He suggested that a renewed emphasis on economic issues could offer a more effective path forward for the party.

In a sign of the internal divisions within the party, two prominent frontbenchers, Mel Stride and Robert Jenrick, presented competing visions for the Tories’ future. Stride focused on economic stability, promising £47 billion (€54 billion) in spending cuts and incentives for young homebuyers, while Jenrick emphasized a hardline approach to immigration. Stride’s speech was marred by low attendance, starting to a half-empty room, reflecting the party’s waning enthusiasm.

In contrast, Jenrick’s session drew significant interest, with queues forming long before his appearance. He delivered a fiery address, criticizing protests related to Gaza and attempting to position himself as a potential successor to Badenoch.

Despite the challenges, Badenoch insisted to members at the backbench 1922 Committee that she would lead the party into the next election. “People keep writing the Tories off and I keep telling them they are wrong,” she stated, to the applause of attendees. However, with internal dissent and poor polling figures, her leadership may be increasingly challenged.

The path forward for the Conservative Party remains uncertain, and as leadership questions loom, the stakes could not be higher. Whether Badenoch can rally support or if others will step forward to challenge her leadership will be crucial for the party’s future viability.