Russian Claims of 1.7 Million Ukrainian Soldier Losses Debunked

Russian hackers have circulated a sensational claim that Ukraine has lost 1.7 million soldiers since the beginning of the invasion in February 2022. This assertion, originating from pro-Russian hacker groups, has gained traction online but lacks credible evidence. Experts warn that this narrative appears to be part of a coordinated disinformation campaign designed to undermine morale.

The unfounded allegations first emerged on the pro-Russian Telegram channel Mash and were subsequently amplified by Kremlin-aligned social media users and state-sponsored media outlets, including Russia Today and RIA Novosti. The initial post claimed that hackers from groups like Killnet had infiltrated the database of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Known primarily for conducting denial-of-service (DoS) attacks on Western institutions, Killnet’s activities have raised concerns about cybersecurity and misinformation.

Included in the Telegram post were screenshots purportedly showing military records and soldiers’ IDs, which claimed to substantiate the staggering number of Ukrainian military casualties. While analysts suggest that the group may have accessed sensitive documents, they emphasize that the figure of 1.7 million is “blatantly false.”

Petro Andryushchenko, head of the Center for the Study of the Occupation in Mariupol, remarked on Telegram that the hacker group is using this information to “legitimise the lie.” He highlighted a broader context of disinformation, referencing previous falsehoods about the Ukrainian government refusing to accept captured soldiers during a prisoner exchange. “All this fits into one targeted attack on morale,” Andryushchenko stated.

Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation has dismissed the claims as “an absolutely absurd fake.” They pointed out that Ukraine has never maintained a standing army of 1.7 million personnel, estimating the current military size at around 880,000.

The reality of casualty figures differs significantly from the claims made by propagandists. There is no independent verification of losses on either side, but credible estimates suggest far lower numbers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported in February 2024 that approximately 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and over 390,000 wounded since the conflict began. Zelenskyy has previously contested media reports suggesting that the death toll could be as high as 80,000. He has also acknowledged the difficulty in determining how many soldiers have died versus those captured.

In June 2023, the Center for Strategic and International Studies provided estimates indicating that between 60,000 and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed, with total casualties reaching approximately 400,000. Meanwhile, estimates of Russian military fatalities range widely. The center suggested around 250,000 Russian soldiers had been killed, while independent analyses, including reports from Mediazona and the BBC Russian service, indicated a lower figure of between 121,000 and 165,000.

The dissemination of these exaggerated claims serves to illustrate how misinformation can spread rapidly, particularly in the volatile context of war. As the conflict continues into its fourth year, the need for verified information remains critical for understanding the realities faced by both Ukrainian and Russian forces.