Ireland’s Future Unveiled: Insights from the ‘Future Forty’ Report

The Irish government released a comprehensive report on November 4, 2025, outlining projections for the country’s economic landscape over the next 40 years. Titled “Future Forty,” the report from the Department of Finance examines various scenarios that could shape Ireland’s economy and public finances by 2065. This extensive analysis models over 2,000 scenarios to establish a ‘Central Scenario’ that reflects anticipated trends and potential challenges.

The report indicates that while living standards in Ireland are expected to continue improving, the pace of this growth may significantly slow. Factors contributing to this deceleration include demographic shifts, reduced productivity, rising climate-related costs, and a forecasted decline in corporate tax revenues.

Housing Crisis and Future Demands

One of the key predictions in the report addresses the ongoing housing crisis, suggesting that “pent-up demand” for homes will not be satisfied until at least 2040. This outcome hinges on the government successfully achieving an annual construction output of 60,000 new homes by 2030. This target represents a notable increase from the 30,330 homes completed in the previous year. The authors of the report emphasize that reaching this goal requires significant enhancements to both the construction workforce and financial investment in the sector.

A recent construction conference highlighted the pressing labor shortages, with industry leaders noting that they are compelled to send workers abroad due to local uncertainties. In response, Taoiseach has called for an influx of migrant workers to support Ireland’s construction output.

The report also warns that failure to meet the housing construction targets, coupled with ongoing increases in house prices, could diminish the purchasing power of many Irish households. This scenario could necessitate greater financial support from the State for a larger portion of the population and businesses, further straining public finances.

Economic Challenges Ahead

The report identifies deglobalisation as a critical threat to the Irish economy in the coming decades. This term refers to the potential separation of national and regional economies, a trend that may be exacerbated by protectionist policies, particularly from the United States. The report outlines two potential scenarios: a stable trade environment, termed ‘slowbalisation,’ and a more concerning trajectory of “gradual fragmentation” of global trade frameworks.

The implications of deglobalisation on Irish public finances remain uncertain; however, the report posits that the overall impact is likely to be negative. Given that a significant portion of the State’s tax revenue is linked to global economic integration, any disruptions in international trade could adversely affect fiscal stability.

Another significant concern outlined in the report is Ireland’s ageing population. Currently, approximately 860,000 individuals are aged 65 and over, a figure projected to nearly triple to two million by 2065. This demographic shift will lead to a decrease in the worker-to-pensioner ratio, raising questions about the sustainability of the pension system and potentially necessitating an increase in the retirement age.

Despite these challenges, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe has stated that the current pension age is “settled,” with no immediate proposals to raise it. However, this stance may need to be revisited as the financial burden of providing healthcare and long-term care for an ageing population grows.

The report underscores the need for proactive policies to address these “megatrends” affecting Ireland—demographics, decarbonisation, digitalisation, and deglobalisation. These factors are anticipated to induce structural changes across productivity, labor markets, and capital investment, which are vital for sustaining economic growth.

The insights from the “Future Forty” report serve as a blueprint for navigating the complexities of Ireland’s future. Policymakers and citizens alike will need to engage with these findings to ensure that the nation can adapt to the challenges ahead while continuing to improve living standards for all.