Brazil’s Supreme Court Convicts Jair Bolsonaro of Coup Plot

A majority of judges from Brazil’s Supreme Court have found former president Jair Bolsonaro guilty of plotting a military coup, marking a significant moment in the country’s political landscape. This ruling, delivered on October 19, 2023, could result in a lengthy prison sentence for Bolsonaro, who has been accused of leading a criminal conspiracy to maintain power after his defeat in the 2022 presidential election.

Justice Cárcen Lúcia Antunes Rocha announced the conviction, stating that Bolsonaro’s actions represented an attempt to “sow the malignant seed of anti-democracy” within Brazil. She emphasized that the nation’s democratic institutions have stood firm against such threats. “Brazilian democracy was not shaken,” Rocha declared in the capital, Brasília, warning against the potential spread of authoritarianism.

The court proceedings involved five judges, three of whom found Bolsonaro guilty, including Justices Alexandre de Moraes and Flávio Dino. Moraes characterized Bolsonaro as the leader of a “criminal organization” aimed at reversing Brazil’s democratic progress. He detailed the conspiracy’s timeline, asserting it unfolded from July 2021 to January 2023, culminating in a violent uprising by Bolsonaro supporters in Brasília following the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

In contrast, Justice Luiz Fux voted to acquit Bolsonaro, citing a lack of evidence linking the former president to a plot that allegedly included plans to assassinate Lula and Moraes. Fux described the events of January 8, 2023, when rioters attacked government buildings, as a “barbaric act” but argued that the court lacked jurisdiction over the case. Despite his dissent, Fux convicted two of Bolsonaro’s allies—former Defence Minister Gen Walter Braga Netto and aide-de-camp Lt Col Mauro Cid—for their roles in the conspiracy.

Bolsonaro’s sentencing is anticipated to be determined shortly, with experts warning that he could face up to 43 years in prison for crimes related to orchestrating a coup and attempting to dismantle Brazil’s democracy. The former president did not attend the court proceedings, remaining under house arrest in a nearby residence, where police have been stationed to prevent his escape.

The political fallout from this ruling has been profound. While many progressives celebrate the conviction as a triumph over Bolsonaro’s controversial tenure, concerns linger regarding the resilience of his political movement. Dr. Camila Rocha, a political scientist at the Brazilian Centre for Analysis and Planning, cautioned against declaring Bolsonaro politically defeated. She noted that his supporters are likely to continue their efforts to secure his release from detention.

Current strategies among Bolsonaro’s supporters include attempting to elect a significant number of right-wing senators in the upcoming elections, who could potentially challenge the Supreme Court’s authority. There is also speculation about enlisting support from international figures like Donald Trump to pressure Brazil regarding Bolsonaro’s situation, with hopes that a future right-wing president could grant him a pardon.

In recent discussions, pro-Bolsonaro lawmakers have floated the idea of an amnesty for those involved in the coup attempt and the riots of January 8. They argue that such measures would promote national healing. However, Fabio Victor, an author focused on military influence in Brazilian politics, warned that an amnesty would undermine democratic principles and set a dangerous precedent by incentivizing illegal actions.

As the political landscape continues to evolve, Brazil finds itself at a critical juncture, grappling with the implications of this ruling and the ongoing influence of Bolsonaro’s supporters. The upcoming months will likely reveal how deeply the nation is affected by this conviction and whether Brazilian democracy can withstand the pressures it faces.