Ukraine and Allies Formulate Military Strategy for Ceasefire Violations

Ukraine has reached an agreement with Western allies to address potential violations of any future ceasefire with Russia. According to officials familiar with the discussions, the coordinated military response would involve action from both European nations and the United States. This plan was outlined during talks between representatives from Ukraine, Europe, and the US, occurring multiple times in December 2023 and January 2024.

As part of the strategy, any violation of a ceasefire by Russia would trigger a response within 24 hours. This response would commence with a diplomatic warning, followed by necessary actions from the Ukrainian military to address the breach. Should hostilities persist, a second phase would involve intervention by a coalition of willing nations, including many EU members, the UK, Norway, Iceland, and Turkey. If an initial breach escalated into a larger attack, a coordinated military response involving US forces would deploy after 72 hours.

The Ukrainian, European, and American officials initially discussed this plan in Paris, with further deliberations taking place among national security advisers in Kyiv on January 3, 2024. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has also engaged in talks regarding US support during a visit to Mar-a-Lago in December 2023, where he discussed potential military assistance with Donald Trump.

Both the UK and France have committed to sending troops and military equipment to Ukraine, reinforcing security guarantees backed by the US. These arrangements are intended to support a proposed 20-point peace deal aimed at concluding Russia’s nearly four-year invasion of Ukraine. A European-led “deterrence” force would offer reassurance across air, sea, and land post-ceasefire, with US intelligence and logistical support.

Enforcement and monitoring of any ceasefire remain pivotal for its sustainability. The US has pledged to provide advanced monitoring capabilities along the 1,400-kilometre frontline. Since the onset of the conflict in 2014, Ukraine has experienced numerous Russian violations of ceasefires, notably following the Minsk agreements, which sought to halt fighting in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

These agreements, signed by Ukraine, Russia, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and leaders of the separatist regions, failed due to a lack of enforcement mechanisms and security guarantees from the West. As a result, hostilities resumed, culminating in Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

Zelenskiy announced in early January that the security guarantees negotiated with the US are “100 per cent ready,” expressing hope for a confirmation of the signing date and location. He emphasized the importance of demonstrating progress to the Ukrainian people, stating, “This is important not only for me – it is also very important … for people to see progress.”

The details of the security guarantees remain somewhat ambiguous, especially since they hinge on a lasting ceasefire that has yet to be achieved. During discussions, Trump indicated that the security guarantees offered would resemble NATO’s Article 5 commitment, which stipulates collective defense in the event of a new Russian attack. Zelenskiy mentioned that Trump proposed a 15-year guarantee, although Ukrainian officials are advocating for an extension to 50 years.

In a recent statement, Zelenskiy highlighted the significance of an 800,000-strong Ukrainian army, supported by training and weapons, as part of the security framework with the US. He aims to finalize this document along with a “prosperity plan” for postwar reconstruction before the fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2024. The president believes this timing could enhance Kyiv’s negotiating position with Moscow and solidify long-term support from Trump.

The issue of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region has emerged as a central concern in negotiations, with Ukraine unwilling to concede territory that remains contested. Moscow has indicated it will not agree to any ceasefire until a comprehensive peace deal is established. Russian President Vladimir Putin has asserted that his military is prevailing on the battlefield and is prepared to continue operations until its objectives are met.

Recently, Russian strikes have targeted Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, leaving large parts of Kyiv without power, heating, and water during severe winter conditions. In response to the proposed security guarantees, Russian officials have dismissed them as inadequate. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev stated that “these guarantees can’t be one-sided,” emphasizing that both sides must be considered for any agreement to be effective.

The US’s role in pressuring Russia to negotiate remains limited. Ukrainian and European officials report that the US has indicated that any security commitments from the Trump administration would be contingent upon Ukraine making significant territorial concessions aligned with Russian demands.

In previous peace talks held in Abu Dhabi, both Ukraine and Russia engaged in discussions focused on the potential parameters for ending the war. Zelenskiy noted that military representatives had identified key issues for further negotiation. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha remarked that there has been some progress in talks with the Russian delegation, highlighting a shift in the composition of the Russian team toward more constructive dialogue.

As negotiations continue, the international community watches closely, hoping for a resolution that brings an end to the ongoing conflict and paves the way for a durable peace in the region.