EU Enlargement Risks Escalating Brain Drain in the Balkans

The European Union’s enlargement process could deepen the ongoing issue of “brain drain” in the Western Balkans as skilled workers from newer member states seek better opportunities. Experts emphasize that targeted measures are necessary to address this growing concern, particularly as the EU moves to integrate additional countries into its framework.

While the accession of new nations may provide significant business and investment opportunities, it also risks triggering a substantial migration of workers pursuing higher salaries and better job prospects in wealthier EU member states. This phenomenon has already had negative repercussions on local economies, especially in countries such as Croatia and Romania. According to the World Bank, Croatia, which joined the EU in 2013, lost nearly 400,000 residents in the past decade, placing it among the top five EU nations experiencing the largest population decline. Romania, which became a member in 2007, faces an even more severe situation, with approximately one in four Romanians now living abroad, as reported by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The EU is grappling with a significant labour shortage driven by an ageing population and low birth rates. Projections indicate that the bloc could lose one million workers annually until 2050. Although worker mobility within the EU has provided some relief to these shortages, southern and eastern European countries have been disproportionately affected by skilled worker emigration, aggravating their economic challenges.

Lien Jansen, a PhD researcher at KU Leuven, remarked, “While the exodus of skilled migrants from the Western Balkans has been ongoing for decades, EU accession could exacerbate this phenomenon as we saw in the previous enlargement.” The recent liberalization of Schengen visas has further facilitated this trend, allowing many workers to seek seasonal employment in the EU. “EU membership tends to intensify this process further by removing the remaining labour market barriers,” she noted.

Some experts suggest that the impact of EU membership on migration patterns may not be as severe for countries in the next enlargement, as many candidate nations have been entrenched in the application process for years and have already experienced substantial outflows of their skilled workforce. Montenegro and Albania applied for EU membership in 2008 and 2009, respectively, while North Macedonia submitted its application 22 years ago. The broader Balkans region has witnessed a continuous demographic shift, with the working-age population projected to decline by approximately 20% by 2050. The World Bank estimates that if current trends persist, the region could face a shortfall of more than 190,000 workers by the end of the decade.

A 2025 study by Bruegel highlights that certain economic sectors within the Western Balkan countries—specifically Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia—are under significant strain, particularly in healthcare, construction, and manufacturing. The research acknowledges that while outmigration poses challenges, it can also yield economic benefits, such as increased trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), and remittances from migrants.

The EU has recognized the need to address potential spillover effects from the enlargement process. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, the EU has prioritized the enlargement of the union as a strategic objective. In 2023, the EU unveiled its Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, aimed explicitly at fostering economic development and socio-economic convergence. The European Commission claims this initiative could double the region’s economies within the next decade.

For the first time, the EU is offering partial access to the single market for these candidate countries prior to their full membership, contingent on certain reforms. Nina Vujanović, an affiliate fellow at Bruegel, stated, “Growth benefits from EU entry outweigh the population losses.” She further explained that all central and eastern European countries that have joined the EU have experienced stronger economic convergence despite the brain drain effect.

The integration into the EU single market is expected to enhance growth potential for these smaller economies by facilitating better access to EU supply chains. Countries such as Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Moldova are already part of the Single Euro Payment Area (SEPA), making cross-border payments with the EU faster and more cost-effective.

On November 4, 2023, the European Commission will present its annual evaluation of candidate countries, assessing their progress and issuing recommendations in areas such as rule of law, fundamental rights, and justice.

Addressing the brain drain phenomenon requires a collective effort from the EU and candidate nations. Lune Bernstein, co-author of the upcoming report “Navigating Brain Drain in the Western Balkans,” suggests that the EU should acknowledge this issue as a shared challenge linked to enlargement in its forthcoming report. She advocates for support measures aimed at retaining and attracting talent, such as linking funding to local employment and promoting circular migration.

Countries aware of the brain drain challenge have begun to implement reforms to encourage the return of their citizens. For example, Serbia offers tax breaks to employers hiring returnees from the diaspora in innovation and skilled sectors. Poland introduced a similar tax incentive in 2022, benefiting 25,000 individuals returning to the country after at least three years abroad. This programme guarantees a four-year personal income tax exemption on earnings below 85,500 zloty (approximately €20,166).

As the EU navigates the complexities of enlargement, the balance between economic opportunity and the risk of brain drain will be crucial in shaping the future of the Western Balkans.