EU Softens Stance on Orban as Hungary Faces Crucial Election

The European Commission is adjusting its approach towards Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban as the country prepares for a significant election on April 12, 2024. Reports indicate that the Commission may consider releasing approximately €2.4 billion in EU funds to Orban’s government, despite ongoing concerns regarding Hungary’s adherence to EU democratic principles. This shift appears to be a strategic move to avoid perceived interference in Hungary’s electoral process, which could ultimately affect Orban’s political future.

Polls indicate that Orban’s party, Fidesz, may be at risk of losing power to the opposition Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar. Current forecasts show Tisza with a lead of about ten points over Fidesz. In recent remarks, Magyar has called for EU institutions to exercise caution during the campaign, reflecting a desire for a more restrained approach from Brussels. He emphasized Hungary’s integral role within the EU, stating, “Hungary’s place is in Europe, not only because we need Europe but also because Europe needs us.”

The Commission’s newfound caution in its public statements relates to ongoing concerns about Hungary’s rule of law and governance. EU officials are reportedly hesitant to provoke further backlash from Orban, who has historically framed EU scrutiny as foreign meddling in Hungary’s sovereignty. A Hungarian official noted, “Months before such a historic, decisive election… they came to the conclusion that the best thing to do is not to do anything.”

In the past, Orban has aligned himself closely with controversial figures, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, and consistently opposed military assistance for Ukraine. His administration has characterized any EU criticism as an attack on national sovereignty, portraying Magyar as a puppet of Brussels. This situation is further complicated by the establishment of a “Democracy Interference Observatory” by the Mathias Corvinus Collegium, a think tank associated with Orban. This initiative aims to scrutinize perceived EU influence on national elections across Europe.

A European Parliament official remarked, “Whatever the EU institutions will do will be used by Orban… Whatever we say or do not say, it will be used against us.” The US has also shown support for Orban’s government, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio scheduled to visit Hungary, coinciding with the upcoming Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) where former President Donald Trump is expected to appear.

The European Court of Justice recently issued a legal opinion questioning a decision made earlier in 2023 to unfreeze €10 billion in aid for Hungary, a move aimed at alleviating Orban’s veto on support for Ukraine. Hungarian EU Minister János Bóka criticized the EU’s actions, claiming, “Brussels is threatening Hungary through the European Court of Justice because we are not paying Ukraine.”

Currently, approximately €17 billion in EU funds intended for Hungary remain frozen due to concerns over judicial independence and discrimination issues. Furthermore, the Commission has initiated an investigation into allegations that the Hungarian government attempted to recruit EU officials as informants. A spokesperson for the Commission stated that they are “actively looking into these [spying] allegations” and that their assessments of Hungary’s rule of law continue normally.

In the wake of recent developments, Orban has enacted a decree instructing courts to dismiss certain lawsuits against the government, raising further concerns regarding judicial independence. The Commission responded by stating, “We are following developments closely, and we are now analyzing the decree in question.”

Political reactions to the Commission’s cautious stance reveal a divide among lawmakers. Some, like Tineke Strik from the Green Party, argue that the Commission’s reluctance to act sends a detrimental message. Strik described the strategy as “such a stupid strategy,” pointing out that the EU’s delay could be interpreted as a lack of commitment to democratic principles in Hungary.

Budapest stands to gain €16 billion in defense funding through the EU’s major arms procurement program, known as Safe. Should Hungary’s funding plans be approved, an initial allocation of around €2.4 billion could be disbursed. Opinions on this funding are mixed, with some European lawmakers expressing concern about providing financial support to Orban’s government. An official from the European People’s Party stated, “Granting him this money would be absolutely absurd,” while others caution that withholding funds could also be viewed as interference.

As Hungary approaches its critical election, the European Commission finds itself navigating a complex political landscape, balancing the need for democratic integrity with the ramifications of its actions on the electoral process.