Irish Heat Pump Targets at Risk: Comfort Barrier Impedes Progress

A new study highlights significant delays in Ireland’s efforts to meet its heat pump installation targets, warning that the country may not achieve its goal of retrofitting 400,000 homes until 2042, a full 12 years behind schedule. According to researchers from the Irish Building Stock Observatory (IBSO) at TU Dublin, the target set in the 2024 Climate Action Plan is to be met by 2030. This delay occurs despite advances in heat pump technology, which could be suitable for as many as three-quarters of Irish homes.

The study identifies a phenomenon termed the “comfort barrier” as a primary factor slowing the adoption of heat pumps. More than a third of Irish homes currently receive a ‘C’ rating on the building energy rating (BER) scale, indicating that these homes maintain manageable heating costs and are relatively comfortable when heating systems are operational. Elihu Essien-Thompson, a research assistant at IBSO and lead author of the paper published in the journal Energy Policy, noted that numerous studies indicate homeowners in adequately comfortable homes often prefer to maintain their current heating systems, even when more efficient options are available.

For many of these C-rated households, the financial incentives to retrofit their properties may not justify the investment. The study’s findings suggest that homeowners may lack the motivation to upgrade their heating systems, even though such improvements are crucial for meeting national environmental targets.

Barriers to Adoption

One potential solution to increase heat pump uptake could be the introduction of cheaper electricity tariffs for users of these systems. Ciara Ahern, principal investigator at IBSO and co-author of the study, pointed out that a heat pump in a C-rated home could prove more costly to operate than one installed in a B-rated home.

The research also highlights low retrofit rates for older apartment buildings, which face a risk of becoming stranded assets—devalued and neglected as the housing sector evolves. The criteria for qualifying for state grants to install heat pumps also presents another barrier. Buildings must meet a specific heat loss indicator (HLI), a measure of efficiency that has not kept pace with technological advancements in heat pump systems. As a result, many homes that could benefit from these systems do not qualify for financial support.

The researchers concluded that reforming the HLI criteria and implementing tailored measures for C-rated homes would be essential for improving heat pump adoption rates. Essien-Thompson emphasized that advancements in technology and reductions in electricity production costs mean that heat pumps could feasibly be installed in a greater number of homes.

Looking Ahead

Despite the challenges, the study anticipates that the goal of retrofitting 500,000 homes to a B2 standard by 2030 may only miss its mark by two years. The research revealed a crucial gap in Ireland’s building regulations: homes can achieve B2 ratings without significantly reducing their heat demand. This is often accomplished through the installation of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, which are highly marketable due to their relatively short payback period of five to ten years.

For instance, one case study examined a three-bedroom semi-detached house from the 1980s that was able to reach a B2 rating through solar panel installation. However, even at this improved rating, the house would not be considered “heat-pump ready.” This is concerning, given that heating accounts for approximately 12% of Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions, with three-quarters of homes relying on oil and gas for heating.

Ahern pointed out that decarbonizing heat is critical, particularly during cold weather when heating demand peaks. She stated, “Heat pump technology is so rapidly advancing that we have to reassess our traditional, albeit well-intended, approaches.”

In 2022, only 4,360 Irish homes received heat pump grants from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI), while over 30,000 homeowners were awarded grants for solar PV systems—a record number.

When approached for comment, the SEAI acknowledged the barriers presented by upfront costs associated with heat pumps. The agency stated that an overhaul of the grant system this year has made an additional €4,000 available for renewable heating, which could help reduce the overall costs associated with upgrading heating systems and encourage greater adoption of heat pumps.

The SEAI further noted that Ireland has made substantial progress toward its carbon dioxide reduction targets for the residential sector by 2030. It emphasized that no single solution is appropriate for every home, advising homeowners that any improvements—big or small—contribute to reducing energy bills and emissions. The agency has also initiated a pilot program to explore the use of heat pumps in homes without requiring extensive insulation upgrades.

As Ireland grapples with these challenges, the successful adoption of heat pump technology will be crucial for achieving its climate goals and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years.